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2024-12-14 01:23:41

China Merchants Securities: Investment Guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year From these four aspects, China Merchants Securities said that the investment guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year mainly include the following aspects: 1) From a macro perspective, the support intensity of policies for various economic work is expected to exceed market expectations. Specifically, the fiscal policy orientation is positive, deficit ratio will arrange or keep it above 3%, the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be further expanded, and the scale and investment field of special bonds are expected to be further extended; Monetary policy mentioned "timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates", and the goal of liquidity policy changed from balance to loose tendency, which will bring room for valuation improvement of A shares. 2) From the perspective of expanding domestic demand, consumption will become the main line of investment next year: the meeting will continue the deployment of the Politburo meeting in December, and in the order of writing, consumption will still be placed at the top of next year's key tasks. In terms of specific measures, it is planned to boost consumption mainly through two aspects. First, increase the income of residents; The second is to increase consumption scenarios. 3) Focus on scientific and technological innovation to lead the development of new quality productive forces, and grasp two main lines: this meeting focused on "carrying out' artificial intelligence+'action and cultivating future industries". Artificial intelligence has appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for three consecutive years. Future industries have also appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for two consecutive years. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on artificial intelligence+and future industries. 4) Focus on "comprehensive improvement of' involution' competition": In terms of "involution" competition, photovoltaic industry is the representative in emerging industries. Recently, in addition to self-regulatory measures such as industry association initiatives, the photovoltaic export tax rebate rate has been lowered and industry norms have been updated to further control new production capacity. The policy is further introduced to curb the "involution" competition of photovoltaics. It is recommended to pay attention to photovoltaic, lithium battery and other industries.The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology decided to set up the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence Standardization Technical Committee, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology decided to set up the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence Standardization Technical Committee, numbered MIIT/TC1, which is mainly responsible for the compilation and revision of industry standards in the fields of artificial intelligence evaluation and testing, operation and maintenance, data set, basic hardware, software platform, large model, application maturity, application development management and artificial intelligence risk. The first Technical Committee of Artificial Intelligence Standardization of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology consists of 41 members, and the secretariat is undertaken by China Information and Communication Research Institute.Malaysia Airlines and Uzbekistan Airlines resumed code sharing agreement.


China Merchants Securities: Investment Guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year From these four aspects, China Merchants Securities said that the investment guidelines of the Central Economic Work Conference for A-shares next year mainly include the following aspects: 1) From a macro perspective, the support intensity of policies for various economic work is expected to exceed market expectations. Specifically, the fiscal policy orientation is positive, deficit ratio will arrange or keep it above 3%, the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be further expanded, and the scale and investment field of special bonds are expected to be further extended; Monetary policy mentioned "timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates", and the goal of liquidity policy changed from balance to loose tendency, which will bring room for valuation improvement of A shares. 2) From the perspective of expanding domestic demand, consumption will become the main line of investment next year: the meeting will continue the deployment of the Politburo meeting in December, and in the order of writing, consumption will still be placed at the top of next year's key tasks. In terms of specific measures, it is planned to boost consumption mainly through two aspects. First, increase the income of residents; The second is to increase consumption scenarios. 3) Focus on scientific and technological innovation to lead the development of new quality productive forces, and grasp two main lines: this meeting focused on "carrying out' artificial intelligence+'action and cultivating future industries". Artificial intelligence has appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for three consecutive years. Future industries have also appeared in the draft of the Central Economic Work Conference for two consecutive years. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on artificial intelligence+and future industries. 4) Focus on "comprehensive improvement of' involution' competition": In terms of "involution" competition, photovoltaic industry is the representative in emerging industries. Recently, in addition to self-regulatory measures such as industry association initiatives, the photovoltaic export tax rebate rate has been lowered and industry norms have been updated to further control new production capacity. The policy is further introduced to curb the "involution" competition of photovoltaics. It is recommended to pay attention to photovoltaic, lithium battery and other industries.Meijin Energy has set up a new coal washing company with 100 million yuan. According to the enterprise investigation APP, Shanxi Meijin Taiyue Coal Washing Co., Ltd. was recently established, with Wu Yong as the legal representative and a registered capital of 100 million yuan. Its business scope includes: coal washing; Sales of coal and products; Coal-based activated carbon and other coal processing. Enterprise investigation shows that the company is wholly owned by Meijin Energy.Chen Guo, China Securities: The 2025 policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and AI+ in all directions, and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of China Securities, said that the meeting had seven highlights, including clarifying the growth target and fiscal and monetary policy measures, expanding domestic demand in all directions as the top priority of the policy, focusing on "AI+" in science and technology, focusing on implementation of reform measures, paying attention to coping with external shocks in opening up, strengthening the expression of real estate policies, and increasing efforts to improve people's livelihood. Chen Guo said that further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts from the end of 2024 to 2025 are worth looking forward to, and the easing of the liquidity environment has become a market consensus. However, this does not mean that liquidity is rampant, because the growth of money supply in the scale of social financing still continues the requirement of matching the expected target of the overall price level of economic growth. Chen Guo believes that the 2025 policy will focus on expanding domestic demand and AI+ in an all-round way, and the strength and direction of the policy are in line with expectations. With the support of policy expectations and liquidity, it is expected that the market will continue to show the characteristics of volatility. From the perspective of investment strategy, Chen Guo suggested focusing on non-bank finance, real estate chain, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, building materials, steel, social services, catering chain and other sectors. In terms of theme, it is suggested to pay attention to investment opportunities such as "duality" and "two innovations", supply-side optimization, new quality productivity, market value management of state-owned enterprises and CSI A500 index.


The yield of China's 30-year national debt "24 Special National Debt 06" fell below 2%, hitting a new low.Beizheng 50 rose more than 1%, Huayang Racing Car had a daily limit of 30CM, and Ricky Zhizao, Fuheng New Materials and Bai Xinglong rose more than 10%.From January to October, the national output of photovoltaic polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components all increased by more than 20% year-on-year. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to October 2024, China's photovoltaic industry operated smoothly as a whole. According to the announcement of photovoltaic industry norms, enterprise information and industry associations, the output of photovoltaic polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and components in China increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and the export volume of photovoltaic cells increased by more than 40%. In the polysilicon sector, the national output from January to October was about 1.58 million tons, up 39.0% year-on-year. In the silicon wafer link, the national output from January to October was about 608GW, and the export volume was about 53.2GW. In the battery sector, from January to October, the national output of crystalline silicon batteries was about 510GW, and the export volume was about 45.9GW. In terms of components, from January to October, the national output of crystalline silicon components was about 453GW, and the export volume was about 205.9GW.

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